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ECONOMIC SURVEY OF DELHI
1999 - 2000
(March 2000)

CHAPTER 2

STATE INCOME
  

ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES
1.

Delhi has a strong and vibrant economy. State Income, i.e, the Net State Domestic Product was Rs. 36504 crores in 1998-99, (current prices), representing a growth of 13.3 % over the previous year (Table 2.1) . Advance estimates for 1999-2000 indicate 11.5% growth in NSDP (current prices) during 1999-2000.

2. Gross State Domestic Product at current prices is estimated at Rs.44510 crores during 1999-2000 indicating a growth of 11.4% over the previous year (Table 2.3).
  
ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (1993-94) PRICES
          
3.

State Income of Delhi i.e. Net State Domestic Product at constant (1993-94) prices was estimated at Rs.25165 crores during 1998-99, representing a real growth of 5.8% in Delhi’s economy during 1998-99 (Table 2.2). Real growth in NSDP is expected to be 7.0% in 1999-2000 compared to 5.9% at the National level.
4.

Gross State Domestic Product at constant prices is estimated at Rs. 29775 crores in 1999-2000, indicating a real growth of 7.0% over the previous year (Table 2.4). The real growth in Gross Domestic Product at National level during 1999-2000 is expected to be 5.9%.
5. The real growth in sectoral GSDP during 1999-2000 is expected to be 3.9% in the primary sector, 6.3% in the secondary sector and 7.2% in the tertiary sector.
6. The table below summarizes the growth picture in Delhi during the last four years :

Statement 2.1

PERCENTAGE GROWTH OVER PREVIOUS YEAR
  1996-97 1997-98 1998-99(Q) 1999-2000(A)
NSDP
i. Current prices
15.50
13.53
13.33
11.46
ii. Constant prices 7.04 5.75 5.84 7.03
GSDP
i. Current prices
15.38
11.89
13.30
11.41
ii. Constant prices 7.19 5.19 5.85 7.00


Q-Quick Estimates, A-Advance Estimates
Real growth had declined in 1997-98 and 1998-99 but is expected to pick-up in 1999-2000.
  

BOX 2.1

Revision of the State Domestic Product Series
with Base Year 1993-94

In accordance with the recommendations of the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA) prepared by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts comprising the European communities (EUROSTAT), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations and the World Bank, the Central Statistical Organisation decided to shift the base year of the National/State Income series from 1980-81 to 1993-94. Accordingly, the State Income 1980-81 series has since been changed to the base year 1993-94.

 

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TRENDS
7.

The Net State Domestic Product of Delhi at current prices for 1999-2000 has been estimated at Rs.40686 crores, indicating an annual compound growth rate of 14.43% over the corresponding estimate of Rs..18120 crores in 1993-94. At constant (1993-94) prices, NSDP is projected to increase from Rs.18120 crores in 1993-94 to Rs.26934 crores in 1999-2000 registering an annual compound growth rate of 6.83%.
8. 

The Gross State Domestic Product of Delhi (GSDP) at current prices, estimated at Rs.44510 crores during 1999-2000 has shown an annual compound growth rate of 14.17% over the estimate of Rs.20094 crores in 1993-94 Similarly, the annual compound growth rate of Gross State Domestic Product at constant (1993-94) prices has been 6.77% during the period 1993-94 till 1999-2000.The comparative picture of Delhi vis -a-vis All India is depicted below:-

Statement 2.2

ANNUAL COMPOUND GROWTH 1993-94 TILL 1999-2000
 

DELHI 

ALL INDIA
NSDP/NNP
i. Current prices 
14.43 
14.80
ii. Constant prices 6.83 6.59
GSDP/GDP
i. Current prices 
14.17
14.56
ii. Constant prices 6.77 6.58

 

9. 

The compound growth rates in primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of GSDP for the period 1993-94 to 1999-2000 at current prices were (-) 4.25%, 4.42% and 17.78% per annum, respectively. Similarly at constant (1993-94) prices, the annual compound growth rates for the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors were (-)10.80%, (-) 2.18% and 10.12% respectively.

BOX 2.2

Methodology to Estimate State Income

Estimates of State Domestic Product are computed using the production approach, expenditure approach and income approach.

The production approach is adopted for agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying and manufacturing (registered). In this approach, output of the relevant activities is multiplied by wholesale prices to arrive at estimates of state domestic product.
The expenditure approach is followed only for construction activity in the secondary sector. Capital expenditure is taken into account from the budget documents in the case of the public sector, while the expenditure on construction activity in the private sector is based on the consumption of cement and steel.
The income approach is adopted for the remaining economic activities, namely manufacturing (unregistered), electricity, gas and water supply as well as the entire tertiary sector comprising trade, hotel and restaurants, transport, storage, communication, financing, insurance, real estate, business services, and public administration including defence and other services. This approach differentiates between two categories, public and private. In the public sector, income is computed by analyzing the Budget documents according to economic and purpose classification. To estimate compensation to workers in the private sector, value added per worker per annum is multiplied by the projected work force.

 
PER CAPITA INCOME
10.

According to the revised series (base year 1993-94), the per capita income of Delhi at current prices is projected at Rs.29623 in 1999-2000 compared to Rs. 27693 in 1998-99 and Rs. 25534 in 1997-98. The annual growth rates for 1997-98 and 1998-99 are 8.47% and 8.46% respectively. Advance Estimates indicate an annual growth of 6.97% during 1999-2000. (Table 2.1)

11.  The per capita income of Delhi at constant (1993-94) prices is projected at Rs 19610 in 1999-2000 compared to Rs. 19091 in 1998-99 and Rs. 18849 in 1997-98, indicating an annual growth of 1.28% and 2.72% in 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (Table 2.2). Real per capita income at National level has been estimated at Rs. 10151 during 1999-2000 (CSO Estimates).
12.  Delhi’s per capita income is roughly twice the national average , both at current and constant prices as indicated below :

Statement 2.3

Per capita income, Delhi/All India
  1993-94 1998 -99(Q) 1999-2000(A) A.C.G.R
1993-94 to
1999-2000

At Constant (1993-94) Prices
Delhi    
All India   
17355
7698
19091
9739 
19610
10151
2.06
4.72
At Current Prices
Delhi    
All India   
17355
7698
27693
14682
29623
15841 
9.32
12.78

N.B.: ACGR - Annual Compound Growth Rate.
13. The graphical representation is given in Charts 2.2 & 2.3 and 2.4.

              

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SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF GSDP
                         
14. An analysis of the sectoral composition of GSDP(constant prices) shows that the share of the primary sector comprising agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying has gone down dramatically from 4.11% during 1993-94 to 1.43% during 1999-2000 (Refer Chapter 10 for further details). In contrast, the tertiary sector which is basically the service sector comprising trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage, communications, financing, insurance, real estate, business services, community and social and personal services, which contributed 68.45% to state economy during 1993-94, has increased its share to 82.51% during 1999-2000. The share of the secondary sector comprising manufacturing (registered and unregistered ), electricity, gas and water supply and construction in the GSDP of Delhi has declined from 27.44% in 1993-94 to 16.06% during 1999-2000 due to closure of major industrial units on environmental grounds.

Statement 2.4
SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF GSDP IN DELHI (Constant prices)
                                                                                                                     

(Percentage Share)
Sector 1993-94 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000
Primary    4.11 1.48  1.44 1.43
Secondary 27.44 16.58  16.16 16.06
Tertiary 68.45 81.94 82.40 82.51
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
15.  A comparative picture regarding the shift in sectoral composition of GSDP in Delhi is available in charts 2.5 and 2.6.
                  

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POVERTY LINE IN DELHI
              
16.

The Planning Commission estimates the proportion and number of poor separately for rural and urban India at National and State levels based on the recommendations of theTask Force on ‘Projections of Minimum Needs and Effective Consumption Demands’ (1979). The Task Force had defined the poverty line (BPL) as the cost of an all India average consumption basket at which calorie norms were met. The norms were 2,400 calories per capita per day for rural areas and 2,100 calories for urban areas. These calorie norms have been expressed in monetary terms as Rs.49.09 and Rs.56.64 per capita per month for rural and urban areas respectively at 1973-74 prices. Based on the recommendation of a Study Group on ‘the Concept and Estimation of Poverty Line’, the private consumption deflator from national accounts statistics was selected to update the poverty lines in 1977-78, 1983 and 1987-88.

17.

Subsequently, the expert group under the Chairmanship of late Prof. D.T. Lakdawala examined the issue. The Expert Group accepted the definition of poverty line and base year figures but suggested an alternative methodology to calculate the poverty line. It recommended the use of consumer price index for agricultural labour to update the rural poverty line and a simple average of weighted commodity indices of the consumer price index for industrial workers and for urban non-manual employees to update the urban poverty line. The Planning Commission accepted the recommendations of the Expert Group but modified the method for updating of poverty lines. The Commission decided to use only CPI for industrial workers to estimate and update the urban poverty line. The estimates have been revised and released accordingly. The following statement gives the poverty line for Delhi, (rural and urban separately) as well as actual number of persons and percentage of population below the poverty line.

    
Statement 2.5

Monthly Per capita Poverty line, Delhi, 1973-74 to 1996-97
Year Rural
(in Rs.)		 No. of People
(in lakh)		 Urban
(in Rs.)		 No. of People (in lakh) Total
number of
people
(in lakh)
1973-74 49.95  1.06
(24.44)		 67.95
 21.78
(52.23)		  22.84
(49.61)
1977-78 59.37 1.35
(30.19) 		80.17 16.81
(33.51) 		 18.16 
(33.23)
1983 88.57 0.44
(7.66)		 123.29 17.95
(27.89) 		 18.39
(26.22)
1987-88 122.90   0.10
(1.29)  		176.91 10.15
(13.56)  		10.25
(12.41)
1993-94 233.79 0.19 
(1.90)  		309.48 15.32
(16.03)  		15.51
(14.69)
1996-97  289.31  -  404.96 -  -
                                
Note: Figures in parenthesis are percentages of the total population.
Source: Planning Commission
 

18. 

  

The estimates show that in the last two decades the percentage of population below the poverty line in Delhi declined significantly from 49.61% of the total population in 1973-74 to 12.41% in 1987-88 but registered an increase thereafter to 14.69% in 1993-94. The poverty line estimates for the years 1973-74, 1977-78, 1983, 1987-88, 1993-94 for all States/U.Ts. including Delhi according to modified estimates are given in Table 2.5 .

 

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Table 2.1
Net State Domestic Product by Economic Activity at Current Prices - Delhi (*)
(Rs. In Lakh)

S.NO. INDUSTRY 1993-94 1994-95   1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99(Q) 1999-2000(A)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

PRIMARY SECTOR
1 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING 80223 51687 41432 46084 50550 55807 61611
2 MINING & QUARRYING 1032 399 89 79 194 208 223
(A) SUB TOTAL : PRIMARY (1+2) 81255 52086   41521 46163 50744 56015 61834
SECONDARY SECTOR
3 MANUFACTURING 333668 479863 368784 292781 231699 254406 277557
4 ELECTRICITY, GAS &
WATER SUPPLY  		 40779 39246 22401 22111 80433 92418   106743
5 CONSTRUCTION 121882 140039 150127 178577 199086 217999 241979
(B) SUB TOTAL:SECONDARY(3+4+5) 496329 659148 541312 493469 511218 564823 626279
TERTIARY SECTOR
6 TRADE, HOTELS & RESTAURANTS     415331 572799 656983 698046 759519 867371 957578
7 TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATIONS 82767 102959 114430 126960 165179 188634 208252
8 FINANCING, INSURANCE, REAL ESTATE & BUSINESS
SERVICES     		 447466 496342 717875 1020815 1182717 1335287 1491516
9 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &  PERSONAL SERVICES 288857 332598 384323 451639 551670 638282 723174
(C) SUB TOTAL : TERTIARY(6+7+8+9) 1234421 1504698 1873611 2297460 2659085 3029574 3380520

NET STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT (A+B+C) 1812005 2215932 2456444 2837092 3221047 3650412 4068633

POPULATION (In Lakh) ** 104.40785 108.53527 112.79804 120.52468 126.14623 131.81944 137.34922

PER CAPITA NSDP (In Rs. ) 17355 20417 21777 23540 25534 27693 29623

Note : Revised series with effect from 1993-94
(*) - PROVISIONAL
Q - Quick Estimates
A - Advance Estimates
** - Population figures(as on 1st, October) are based on projections made by Registrar General of India.

 

Table 2.2

Net State Domestic Product by Economic Activity at Constant (1993-94) Prices - Delhi (*)

(Rs. In Lakh)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.NO. INDUSTRY 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99(Q) 1999-2000(A)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRIMARY SECTOR
1 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND
FISHING 80223 46029 34588 35045 37320 38775 40288
2 MINING & QUARRYING   1032 399 36 27 73 76 79
(A) SUB TOTAL : PRIMARY (1+2) 81255 46428 34624 35072 37393 38851 40367
  
SECONDARY SECTOR
       
3 MANUFACTURING   333668 429473 307651 236246 179719 189064 200786
4 ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY   40779 33309 34215 34509 36010 38279 40270
5 CONSTRUCTION   121882 123485 130979 149525 156304 159586 170278
(B) SUB TOTAL:SECONDARY (3+4+5) 496329 586267 472845 420280 372033 386929 411334
TERTIARY SECTOR
6 TRADE, HOTELS & RESTAURANTS   415331 517096 554364 558635 580488 619381 657783
7 TRANSPORT, STORAGE &
COMMUNICATIONS		   82767 94140 103582 110963 132101 140952 149691
8 FINANCING, INSURANCE,
REAL ESTATE & BUSINESS SERVICES		   447466 468125 606479 764920 854902 907906 978723
9 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &
PERSONAL SERVICES		   288857 304643 328820 358726 400870 422517 455473
(C) SUB TOTAL : TERTIARY
(6+7+8+9)		   1234421 1384004 1593245 1793244 1968361 2090756 2241670
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NET STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(A+B+C)		 1812005 2016699 2100714 2248596 2377787 2516536 2693371
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POPULATION (In Lakh)** 104.40785 108.53527 112.79804 120.52468 126.14623 131.81944 137.34922
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PER CAPITA NSDP (In Rs. ) 17355 18581 18624 18657 18849 19091 19610
Note : Revised series with effect from 1993-94 (*) - PROVISIONAL Q - Quick Estimates A - Advance Estimates
** - Population figures(as on 1st, October) are based on projections made by Registrar General of India.

 

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Table 2.3

Gross State Domestic Product by Economic Activity at Current Prices - Delhi (*)

(Rs. In Lakh)

S.NO. INDUSTRY 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99(Q) 1999-2000(A)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

PRIMARY SECTOR
1 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND
FISHING		   81229 52841 42765 47599 52065 57480 63458
2 MINING & QUARRYING   1431 578 133 79 194 208 223
(A) SUB TOTAL : PRIMARY (1+2) 82660 53419 42898 47678 52259 57688 63681
SECONDARY SECTOR
3 MANUFACTURING 372134 526373 418838 351800 290718 319208 348256
4 ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY   50007 49685 34728 35805 84989 97652 112788
5 CONSTRUCTION 129296 148104 158758 188444 208953 228804 253972
(B) SUB TOTAL:  SECONDARY (3+4+5) 551437 724162 612324 576049 584660 645664 715016
TERTIARY SECTOR
6 TRADE, HOTELS & RESTAURANTS   427517 587101 673763 717160 778633 889199 981676
7 TRANSPORT, STORAGE &
COMMUNICATIONS		   141718 171741 194215 217957 256176 292553 322979
8 FINANCING, INSURANCE,
REAL ESTATE &
BUSINESS SERVICES 		494529 554289 793343 1108119 1270021 1433854 1601615
9 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &
PERSONAL SERVICES		 311549 358554 414715 484341 584372 676118 766042
(C) SUB TOTAL : TERTIARY
(6+7+8+9)		 1375313 1671685 2076036 2527577 2889202 3291724 3672312

GROSS STATE DOMESTIC
PRODUCT (A+B+C)		 2009410 2449266 2731258 3151304 3526121 3995076 4451009

POPULATION (In Lakh) ** 104.40785 108.53527 112.79804 120.52468 126.14623 131.81944 137.34922

PER CAPITA GSDP (In Rs. ) 19246 22567 24214 26147 27953 30307 32407
Note: Revised series with effect from 1993-94
(*) - PROVISIONAL
Q - Quick Estimates
A - Advance Estimates
** - Population figures(as on 1st, October) are based on projections made by Registrar General of India.

 

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Table 2.4

Gross State Domestic Product by Economic Activity at Constant (1993-94) Prices - Delhi (*)

(Rs. In Lakh)

S.NO. INDUSTRY 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99(Q) 1999-2000(A)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

PRIMARY SECTOR
1 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND
FISHING		 81229 47076 35694 36211 38486 39987 41546
2 MINING & QUARRYING 1431 563 74 27 73 76 79
(A) SUB TOTAL : PRIMARY (1+2) 82660 47639 35768 36238 38559 40063 41625
SECONDARY SECTOR
3 MANUFACTURING 372134 472419 350335 283812 227285 239104 253928
4 ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY 50007 40690 42082 42949 44888 47716 50197
5 CONSTRUCTION 129296 130864 138300 157499 164278 167728 178966
(B) SUB TOTAL: SECONDARY (3+4+5) 551437 643973 530717 484260 436451 454548 483091
TERTIARY SECTOR
6 TRADE, HOTELS & RESTAURANTS 427517 530202 568539 575288 597141 637149 676652
7 TRANSPORT, STORAGE &
COMMUNICATIONS		 141718 158154 172682 185402 206540 220378 234041
8 FINANCING, INSURANCE,
REAL ESTATE & BUSINESS SERVICES		   494529 521501 669933 834537 924519 981839 1058422
9 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &
PERSONAL SERVICES		 311549 328319 353953 383573 425717 448706 483705
(C) SUB TOTAL : TERTIARY
(6+7+8+9)		 1375313 1538176 1765107 1978800 2153917 2288072 2452820

GROSS STATE DOMESTIC
PRODUCT (A+B+C)		 2009410 2229788 2331592 2499298 2628927 2782683 2977536

POPULATION (In Lakh) ** 104.40785 108.53527 112.79804 120.52468 126.14623 131.81944 137.34922

PER CAPITA GSDP (In Rs. ) 19246 20544 20671 20737 20840 21110 21679

Note : Revised series with effect from 1993-94
(*) - PROVISIONAL
Q - Quick Estimates
A - Advance Estimates
** - Population figures(as on 1st, October) are based on projections made by Registrar General of India.

 

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Table 2.5

STATEWISE NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE

(In lakh)

S.N. STATES/UT’s 1973-74

1977-78

 1983 1987-88

1993-94

No. of No. of

No. of

No. of

 No. of
Persons % persons

% Persons

 % Persons % Persons

%

1 2     3           4            5         6           7               8                9            10          11             12

1. Andhra Pradesh 225.69 48.86 197.54     

39.31

164.58

28.91

 

 160.43   25.86

 

 153.97 22.19
2. Arunachal Pradesh   2.66 51.93 3.36 58.32 2.82 40.88 2.83 36.22   3.73 39.35
3. Assam 81.83 51.21 103.38 57.15 77.69 40.47 75.75 36.21 96.36 40.86
4. Bihar 370.57 61.91 401.82 61.55 462.05 62.22 420.93 52.13 493.35 54.96
5. Goa 4.16 44.26 3.88 37.23 2.23 18.90 2.96 24.52 1.91 14.92
6. Gujarat 138.42 48.15 130.88 41.23 117.92 32.79 122.36 31.54 105.19 24.21
7. Haryana 38.32 35.36 35.48 29.55 29.60 21.37 25.37 16.64 43.88 25.05
8. Himachal Pradesh 9.73 26.39 13.04 32.45 7.41 16.40 7.52 15.45 15.88 28.44
9. Jammu & Kashmir 20.48 40.83 21.72 38.97 15.60 24.24 16.95 23.82 20.92 25.17
10. Karnataka 170.67 54.47 168.17 48.78 149.81 38.24 158.61 37.53 156.48 33.16
11. Kerala 135.52 58.79 127.22 52.22 106.77 40.42 88.48 31.79 76.41 25.43
12. Madhya Pradesh 276.30 61.78 302.87 61.78 277.97 49.78 264.30 43.07 298.52 42.52
13. Maharashtra 287.42 53.24 329.91 55.88 290.89 43.44 296.27 40.41 305.22 36.86
14. Manipur 5.86 49.96 7.06 53.72 5.65 37.02 5.29 31.35 6.80 33.78
15. Meghalaya 5.52 50.20 6.79 55.19 5.62 38.81 5.48 33.92 7.38 37.92
16. Mizoram 1.82 50.32 2.31 54.38 1.96 36.00 1.70 27.52 1.94 25.66`
17. Nagaland 2.90 50.81 3.74 56.04 3.50 39.25 3.66 34.43 5.05 37.92
18. Orissa 154.47 66.18 170.32 70.07 181.31 65.28 165.93 55.58 160.60 48.56
19. Punjab 40.49 28.15 30.23 19.27 28.64 16.18 25.17 13.20 25.11 11.77
20. Rajasthan 128.51 46.14 116.88 37.42 126.83 34.46 142.90 35.15 128.50 27.41
21. Sikkim 1.19 50.86 1.54 55.89 1.35 39.71 1.36 36.06 1.84 41.43
22. Tamil Nadu 239.52 54.94 255.47 54.79 260.07 51.66 231.07 43.39 202.10 35.03
23. Tripura 8.54 51.00 10.61 56.88 8.95 40.03 8.84 35.23 11.79 39.01
24. Uttar Pradesh 535.73 57.07 504.37 49.05 556.74 47.07 536.53 41.46 604.46 40.85
25. West Bengal 299.30 63.43 310.57 60.52 318.69 54.85 283.61 44.72 254.56 35.66
26. A & N Island 0.74 55.56 0.91 55.42 1.11 52.13 1.09 43.88 1.06 34.47
27. Chandigarh 0.84 27.96 1.03 27.32 1.19 23.79 0.84 14.67 0.80 11.35
28. D & N Haveli 0.38 46.55 0.49 37.20 0.18 15.67 0.79 67.11 0.77 50.84
29. Delhi 22.84 49.61 18.16 33.23 18.39 26.22 10.25 12.41 15.51 14.69
30. Daman & Diu - - - - - - - - 0.18 15.80
31. Lakshadweep 0.21 59.68 0.20 52.79 0.19 42.36 0.17 34.95 0.14 25.04
32. Pondicherry 2.74 53.82 3.00 53.25 3.26 50.05 3.05 41.46 3.31 37.40
All India 3213.36 54.88 3288.95 51.32 3228.97 44.48 3070.49 38.86 3203.68 35.97
Source : Planning Commission, Govt. of India

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